Who Will Win ‘Survivor’ 49? An Official Breakdown (& Chaotic Recap)

One of the best things in the world is lying in a bed. The blankets, bountiful. The air conditioner, turned all the way up. The toilet, just a few feet away for a late-night pee in the pitch-black. This is Reason #1, along with a million other very specific bugaboos, why I would never last on Survivor, but that doesn’t mean that I can’t watch and develop intense bonds (and hatreds) with the intrepid contestants trying to impress… Uncle Jeff?

We’re eight episodes through Survivor 49, and things are pretty entertaining. I wouldn’t call this a peak season, at least not yet, but there’s still plenty of time for honest-to-goodness villains to emerge and for things to get messy post-merge. Also, there are a couple of Season 50 spots on the line, so we need to take that all into consideration. Let’s start with a brief — well, as brief as these things can get — recap. And then move on to who’s actually going to win Survivor Season 49. Will it be a political communications director in D.C.? Finally, a win for the Nation’s Capital… Or perhaps an adventurous reporter-turned-Judas? There’s a non-zero chance it’ll be someone who calls himself Rizgod, which is as depressing as things get.

Survivor Season 49 Recap

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Over the last few months of real life, not Survivor time, we’ve seen quite a bit of bedlam on the Mamanuca Islands. What started as three teams of six eventually turned dire for one, as Kele lost Nicole, Annie, Jake and Jeremiah in successive episodes. Jake, in a pretty horrifying sequence, was medically evacuated after being bitten by a venomous sea krait (yet another reason I’ll never be a contestant), turning the game on its head as the resident hunk and bromance king disappeared without a trace.

Soph and Alex got adopted by new tribes, Kristina nearly passed out before a challenge and Juwan kept “accidentally” stealing Savannah’s stuff, the one person you really don’t want to annoy because she’s a serial killer in a sorority girl’s body.

Sage lost her cool with Shannon — as did the rest of humanity — and got her out of there. But don’t worry! The self-described “hippie girl” will be A-OK, as she’s using her newfound celebrity to push Bible Studies on her Instagram. She also remembers “being in the womb,” so that’s something, I guess.

Rizo found an idol and STILL WON’T PLAY IT in the ballsiest maneuvering of back-to-back weeks, and a Black Panther producer got backstabbed out of the game and will have to trek back to Wakanda … or maybe just his hometown of Hermosa Beach.

Phew!

So, where we currently stand is with nine players left on a post-merge Lewatu. Savannah and Riz have a thick-as-thieves bond. Jawan, Sage and Steven have formed a mini “Bottoms Up” alliance. M.C. screwed up a very reasonable play to push Riz off the island, getting voted off in the process. And everyone else is scrambling like a lovely egg breakfast.

Also, the next episode is titled, “If You’re Loyal to All, You’re Loyal to None,” so there’s a very good chance something batsh*t happens. Maybe Jeff Probst will be voted out. There’s a first time for everything, right?

A Look At The Final Nine

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With all of that recapping and deceit, it can get kind of confusing to remember who’s who, which is why it’s time for a very formal and official look at each contestant left. There’s gotta be a better name for that. Maybe Survivor’s Survivors. I don’t know. They didn’t really teach this in journalism grad school. Anyway, in alphabetical order:

Alex Moore: A D.C. political comms director who survived a Kele massacre and seems pretty well-liked by all. He’s a workhorse in the challenges, despite such a rough start, and isn’t on anyone’s Shit List… at least not yet. Watch out for him.

Jawan Pitts: Once Savannah’s main combatant, Jawan has been able to create some stronger alliances and survive despite sometimes coming off as cringey and starting the (hellish) Jeff Probst moniker of “Uncle Jeff.” It’s honestly a miracle someone can start a trend like that and make it to the merge. Hats off to him. Even with his suspect Pokémon knowledge.

Kristina Mills: A retired MBA career coach who has been able to build strong relationships and avoid a single Tribal Council vote (that we know of), even if she’s not the strongest when it comes to the challenges. Someone everyone likes having around, which is basically half the battle at this point.

Rizo Velovic: I gotta be honest. This man is not my favorite. Though, I can’t say I’m not impressed by his cocky Idol play (or should I say lack thereof) and his ability to just hang around, even with plenty of others gunning for him. Feels like he’s here for the long haul, and I can’t not respect it.

Sage Ahrens-Nichols: Immediately a top-tier contestant after her ousting of Shannon and turndown of yet another hug. Has incredible faces and can’t stop herself from rolling her eyes, which I very much relate to. Seems like she’s gotten through the worst of it. But then again, that’s what we say seconds before disaster strikes.

Savannah Louie: Probably the standout of the season, at least when it comes to breeding disarray. Banked her extra vote from the advantage, which we certainly will hear about sooner than later, and is a winner in my book for nearly stealing M.C.’s key(s) and then staring her down in a move that would make even the most self-confident of us uncomfortable. A strong challenge contestant and remarkably “evil” in a way that’s probably going to bite her in the ass down the road.

Sophi “Soph” Balerdi: Once a wounded Kele puppy, Soph has held on and created a nice little home for herself in Fiji, connecting with the Uli alliance on the new Hina tribe. At this point, she powers through week after week, keeps her head down and will probably hold a critical vote down the road.

Sophie Segreti: It’s funny that she’s a strategy associate back in the real world, because she nearly strategized herself right out of the game, attempting (and succeeding) with backstabbing M.C. Complained about fruit, which upset everyone and delighted me to no end. And was kind of quiet over the past few episodes until her bout with M.C. and Riz. Quickly becoming a main character, despite a slower start.

Steven Ramm: An actual rocket scientist, who has become a constant this season, playing it cool even when the votes have been against him. Well-connected when it comes to relationships, knows how to handle challenges and is the third hearing-impaired man to compete on Survivor. A bit of a prankster, as well. Which never hurts to have on the show.

So… Who’s Going To Win Survivor 49?

Before my guess, I just need to inform you that I root for the New York Jets and the New York Mets (and the Washington Wizards), so I’ve never seen anyone I root for win a gosh darn thing. I guess the closest thing to a victory I’ve ever had is somehow getting paid to write about Survivor. And yet, here’s what I think:

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Despite Savannah and Riz probably being the “best” at the game thus far, it just seems too easy to pick them, especially with the rest of the nine gunning for that two-person alliance. If I have to make a pick right now — and I do; my editor told me to — I’m leaning Sophie, who started slow and has quietly been getting more and more on-screen time. She’s a hell of a challenge contestant, has tried a good deal of backstabbing without getting embarrassed (yet) and has somehow had the one good analogy this season.

Also, the fact that her name’s Sophie gives me two chances, because I could just fib down the road and say that I meant to write “Soph” even though it’s very clear what I’m laying out here. Anyway, I’m excited to reverse-jinx her and see her get booted off next week. Regardless, I’m having fun, as are all of the viewers out there and most importantly, good ol’ Uncle Jeff.